The math on the Link

Here’s some math about the Link that I think is worth investigating. This is inspired by a discussion currently happening on Exit133.

So. The Link cost $80.4 million to build, and costs to operate it have been about $3.7 million annually.

So in 2004, the first full year of its service, estimates show that the Link had about 840,000 boardings. At that point, the costs were $83.7 million (capital + operating costs), or $99.64 per every boarder. That’s a number that is—of course—crazy high.

After two years, though, a total of 1,600,000 had boarded the Link, the total cost of which was $87.4 million, which means that already the total cost per boarder was down to $54 dollars per boarder.

Jump ahead to today. Estimates put the total Link ridership at 3.5 million boarders. And the total cost has been $96 million. The total cost to date then, has been $27 per boarder.

Is that high? Yes, of course. But it hasn’t even been 5 years! Transit is dang expensive, and it’s all about the long haul. Follow that math and in 5 years the total cost per boarder will be down to $5 per boarder or so.

But think how it would look in New York? If I had the time, we could figure out how much New York invested in subway lines since the first piece opened in 1904 and divide that by the total number of boarders in those same 104 years. I bet that the total cost divided by boarders is very small, likely even below the cost of a fare.

All I want to emphasize here is how expansion of a transit network becomes more cost-effective over time. Connecting Tacoma to the airport and to Seattle would initially have an incredibly high cost per boarder, but over time would drop substantially. Same as connecting the suburban areas of Tacoma to downtown. We should be doing both, but I understand that we may have to choose one first. I don’t think it matters which one we build first, just that we keep building.

It’s cheaper to build now than later. So let's build.