Dang.

Obama lost. It was expected, but that's no excuse, since that was what Clinton tried to say after every primary and caucus she lost in February.

By my count, Clinton has had two "must-win" scenarios so far: Ohio/Texas and Pennsylvania and she won them both (I don't count New Hampshire as a must-win, I think she could have survived even after losing it and it's worth noting she lost the delegate count in Texas). Obama, for his part, considered Iowa a must-win, and it probably was. At the very least he probably had to win Iowa or New Hampshire.

But since then it's hard to say he's had many "must-win" states. Super Tuesday ended with roughly the same number of delegates going to both of them and he certainly couldn't afford to get blown out of the water ... but there wasn't a single state that day that was a must-win for him (save perhaps Illinois).

My point is that Clinton is now on to another "must-win" state: Indiana. Polling is spotty. No one's really sure who has a strategic advantage going in.

Both campaigns are in a tough spot right now, but I don't think it's too hard to say that given the two options, I would rather not be the candidate who keeps having "must-win" primaries.

Clearly there are going to be questions like, "Why can't Obama put this away?"--questions Clinton has already raised. As an Obama supporter, I have to say I don't have an easy answer to that question. It seems like after some of these contests the argument is "look how much he narrowed the margin ... if he only had more time." That's partially true, but at the same time, he can't say that come November if he loses to McCain.

On the other hand, it kind of is put away. Unless something major changes, she likely can't overtake his delegate lead, and I believe he's winning the popular vote (as much of it as we know; not all caucus states release the popular vote tallies). The question superdelegates have to ask is "If overturning the popular vote and pledged delegate lead is politically risky [as I think it would be] then what cover can Clinton give me for doing it?" Put another way, I'm just not sure I see the rationale yet for why the superdelegates would break for Clinton in the end.

Nationally, Obama is up 10 points on Clinton according to Gallup. That's after everything he went through over the last two weeks--the "bitter" thing, Wright, a bad debate performance. He still polls just as well against McCain as Clinton does, too.

I very much want Obama to win, so perhaps I'm being biased here. But without a blowout in Pennsylvania, the Clinton road to the nomination seems to be just as hard tonight as it was before the primary.