The Long Primary

An interesting post on Andrew Sullivan today (which I shared in my sidebar) reminded me of that leaked spreadsheet back on February 6, in which the Obama campaign was projecting forward to the upcoming primaries. Their margins have been a little off here and there, and they guessed Clinton would take Maine, but other than that, their predictions were right on the money, including a loss in Pennsylvania.

The New Republic piece on Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, had this interesting tidbit: "Where most underdog campaigns bet everything on a quick upset in Iowa or New Hampshire, Plouffe constructed a meticulous plan to turn the race into a long, drawn-out delegate slog."

It reminded me that the Atlantic political reporter Marc Ambinder has called "not planning for and contesting the caucuses" the "major strategic error" of the Clinton campaign. The just didn't see it coming. Last night Clinton picked up 12 - 16 delegates ... less than what Obama picked up in Colorado (17 delegates) or Kansas (14). Plouffe was apparently the one who foresaw that the small mostly red states could be huge gains for the campaign because Clinton wouldn't think to compete there.

I recommend the TNR piece. It's interesting that Obama, with the help of Plouffe, were able to out-politic two of the best politicians ever. I made the point in February, but I'd like to make it again: Obama is a very canny politician. That's one of the things about him I really like.