If you're a Democrat, this NYT map is a little scary. It's a map of solid Democratic states, solid Republican states, and the "Battleground States."
To win the Presidency, Obama would need to take all the states Kerry won in 2004, plus take 18 electoral college votes from John McCain. States that Bush won in 2004 that Obama will want to try to flip are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while still maintaining Pennsylvania and Michigan in the blue column. Is that going to be hard for Obama? It's certainly not going to be easy.
I do think that, with this electoral layout in mind, there is one really good choice for an Obama VP--Bill Richardson.
He neutralizes any inroads McCain might make in Cali. He brings out the Hispanic vote in Colorado, Nevada, hopefully Florida and he guarantees New Mexico (not a big coup, it only has 5 electoral college votes). He might even be able to help with the Catholic vote, something Obama needs a bump in. He has foreign policy credentials, he has energy credentials ... and he broke early for Obama when it was still politically risky to do so.
I think Obama/Richardson could be the winning ticket.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
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2 comments:
How does Richardson neutralize McCain inroads in CA? Just because he's Hispanic? CA will swing based on issues and voter turnout, not the ethnicity of one veep candidate over another. And when has a veep candidate energized a voting base?
Geographically, I understand picking a running mate for strategy, but to think that means much beyond the particular state and its borders is far fetched. Example: Mel Martinez's endorsement of McCain will mean astronomically more for FL than Richardson running with Obama.
Maybe the Catholic vote is helpful, but likely Catholics will vote en masse (D) anyway. Obama's problems garnering Catholics has been due to Hillary's gains, not the Republican party.
At least he does bring experience-- something Obama needs. But there's no shortage of seasoned Senators and governors to take on that role. George Will thinks it should be Strickland, which would make a lot of sense, too.
Personally, I'm pulling for Obama-Dodd, just because it's fun to say.
Generally I don't buy that VP choices can pull much to a voting block, but this year might be different. If Obama has had trouble with Hispanic voters, adding the most prominent Hispanic politician to the ticket might convince them to his side versus a (generally) pro-immigration McCain.
I don't think he could chose any woman other than Clinton--I think it might actually hurt him.
Question: assuming she'd be OK for it, would a McCain/Rice ticket pull votes from Obama with either women or African Americans? Hard to say.
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